Predicting SIRS after PCNL using machine learning: the joint impact of sarcopenia and staghorn stones.

PURPOSE: To develop and validate machine learning models for predicting systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) after percutaneous nephrolithotomy (PCNL), to establish a web-based prediction tool, and to investigate the association between sarcopenia and staghorn stones as well as their potential synergistic effect on postoperative SIRS.

METHODS

Patients undergoing PCNL between January 2021 and August 2025 at The Third Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-sen University were retrospectively analyzed and randomly divided into training and validation sets (7:3). Feature selection was performed using elastic net and Boruta. Six machine learning models were developed and compared, with SHAP used for interpretability. The optimal model was used to build a web-based prediction tool. Associations and interaction effects between sarcopenia and staghorn stones were further assessed.

RESULTS

A total of 755 patients were included, with a SIRS incidence of 17.62%. XGBoost achieved the best performance (validation set: AUC = 0.863, accuracy = 0.863, sensitivity = 0.763, specificity = 0.883, F1 score = 0.652). SHAP analysis identified staghorn stones and sarcopenia as the most important predictors. Sarcopenia was positively associated with staghorn stones. A significant synergistic effect on SIRS was observed, confirmed by both multiplicative interaction (OR = 4.229, 95% CI 1.354-14.432, P = 0.016) and additive interaction (RERI = 25.473, AP = 0.854, S = 8.600).

CONCLUSION

The XGBoost model provides robust prediction of postoperative SIRS after PCNL, and the web-based tool may assist in risk stratification. Sarcopenia and staghorn stones are positively associated, and their coexistence is linked to a higher risk of SIRS with a potential positive interaction, highlighting the need for individualized perioperative management.