[Analysis of the trend in the burden of tuberculosis in China from 1990 to 2021].

Objective

To assess the burden and development trends of tuberculosis (TB) in China from 1990 to 2021 to provide a reference for TB prevention strategies.

Methods

Utilizing the 2021 Global Burden of Disease Study data, the study evaluates the burden of TB and latent TB infection (LTBI) in China using age-standardized incidence, prevalence, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and infection rates. The Joinpoint regression model was employed to analyze changing trends, and the autoregressive moving average model was integrated to forecast multidrug-resistant TB incidence and LTBI infection rates from 2022 to 2030.

Results

In 2021, the age-standardized TB incidence in China was 36.28 per 100 000, the age-standardized prevalence was 30 557.45 per 100 000, the age-standardized DALY rate was 76.22 per 100 000, and the LTBI age-standardized infection rate was 30.48%. Compared to 1990, these figures dropped by 66.72%, 2.82%, 89.41%, and 2.47%, respectively. The age-standardized incidence, prevalence, DALY rate, and infection rate were elevated in individuals aged ≥70 years, and the TB burden was greater in males than in females. The age-standardized TB incidence declined between 1990 and 2021, while the proportion of multidrug-resistant TB patients among newly diagnosed cases, nationwide rose from 3.11% (36 367/1 167 807) in 1990 to 4.12% (25 431/617 725) in 2021. The LTBI age-standardized infection rate exhibited a fluctuating declining trend, averaging a decrease of 0.09%. Predictions for 2022-2030 indicate that China's multidrug-resistant TB incidence will decline slowly, and the LTBI infection rate will initially rise and then gradually fall, reaching 1.10/100 000 and 31.11%, respectively, by 2030.

Conclusions

The TB burden in China declined from 1990 to 2021, but TB prevalence and LTBI infection rates remain high, especially among multidrug-resistant cases, males, and the elderly. Implementing systematic LTBI interventions, enhancing early detection/diagnosis in key populations such as the elderly, and promoting short-course treatments are recommended.