Emerging microbes & infections · 2020
Risk factors associated with COVID-19 infection: a retrospective cohort study based on contacts tracing.
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Liu Tao, Liang Wenjia, Zhong Haojie, He Jianfeng, Chen Zihui, He Guanhao, Song Tie, Chen Shaowei, Wang Ping, Li Jialing, Lan Yunhua, Cheng Mingji, Huang Jinxu, Niu Jiwei, Xia Liang, Xiao Jianpeng, Hu Jianxiong, Lin Lifeng, Huang Qiong, Rong Zuhua, Deng Aiping, Zeng Weilin, Li Jiansen, Li Xing, Tan Xiaohua, Kang Min, Guo Lingchuan, Zhu Zhihua, Gong Dexin, Chen Guimin, Dong Moran, Ma Wenjun
Аннотация
This study aimed to estimate the attack rates, and identify the risk factors of COVID-19 infection. Based on a retrospective cohort study, we investigated 11,580 contacts of COVID-19 cases in Guangdong Province from 10 January to 15 March 2020. All contacts were tested by RT-PCR to detect their infection of SARS-COV-2. Attack rates by characteristics were calculated. Logistic regression was used to estimate the risk factors of infection for COVID-19. A total of 515 of 11,580 contacts were identified to be infected with SARS-COV-2. Compared to young adults aged 20-29 years, the infected risk was higher in children (RR: 2.59, 95%CI: 1.79-3.76), and old people aged 60-69 years (RR: 5.29, 95%CI: 3.76-7.46). Females also had higher infected risk (RR: 1.66, 95%CI: 1.39-2.00). People having close relationship with index cases encountered higher infected risk (RR for spouse: 20.68, 95%CI: 14.28-29.95; RR for non-spouse family members: 9.55, 95%CI: 6.73-13.55; RR for close relatives: 5.90, 95%CI: 4.06-8.59). Moreover, contacts exposed to index case in symptomatic period (RR: 2.15, 95%CI: 1.67-2.79), with critically severe symptoms (RR: 1.61, 95%CI: 1.00-2.57), with symptoms of dizzy (RR: 1.58, 95%CI: 1.08-2.30), myalgia (RR: 1.49, 95%CI: 1.15-1.94), and chill (RR: 1.42, 95%CI: 1.05-1.92) had higher infected risks. Children, old people, females, and family members are susceptible of COVID-19 infection, while index cases in the incubation period had lower contagiousness. Our findings will be helpful for developing targeted prevention and control strategies to combat the worldwide pandemic.