Burden Trends and Future Projections of Acute Glomerulonephritis in India till 2040: An Analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study.

BACKGROUND

Glomerulonephritis (GN) remains a significant cause of kidney-related morbidity and mortality in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Despite advances in acute renal care in India, the national epidemiological trajectory and future burden of GN have not been comprehensively characterized.

MATERIALS AND

METHODS

This study utilized Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2023 data to estimate incidence, mortality, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), years of life lost (YLLs), and years lived with disability (YLDs) due to GN in India from 1990 to 2023. Age-standardized rates (ASRs) were calculated per 100,000 population. Temporal trends were assessed using estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) from log-linear regression models. Future projections to 2040 were modeled using historical EAPC and population forecasts from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation.

RESULTS

From 1990 to 2023, India achieved a 75% reduction in age-standardized death rates (0.091-0.023 per 100,000; EAPC -4.42%, p < 0.001), while incidence remained stable (3.09 per 100,000; EAPC -0.05%, p = 0.123). DALYs declined 77% (2.49-0.58 per 100,000), driven by YLLs rather than disability (YLDs). Males experienced a 1.5-fold higher burden across all metrics. Marked geographic disparities emerged, with eastern states (Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, Bihar) demonstrating 2-4-fold higher mortality than the national average despite similar incidence. By 2040, age-standardized death rates are projected to decline 52% further, but absolute incident cases will increase 18% (41,200-48,720) due to population growth.

CONCLUSION

India has achieved major reductions in GN mortality, yet stable incidence and persistent disability indicate that primary prevention and early detection remain inadequate. Without policy intervention, rising case numbers will place increasing demand on renal services. GN should be prioritized within national and subnational kidney health strategies as a sentinel indicator of health system preparedness in LMICs.