Child abuse & neglect · 2026
Catastrophic flooding and police-recorded child maltreatment in a large metropolis: Evidence from a 4-year interrupted time-series study in Brazil.
СтатьяНазвание и аннотация: Перевод в очереди
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Levandowski Mateus Luz
Аннотация
BACKGROUND: Child maltreatment is a major public health concern worldwide and may worsen during crises, particularly in low- and middle-income countries. Despite recurrent severe flooding in Brazil, evidence on disaster-related changes in police-recorded child maltreatment is limited.
OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the impact of the historic 2024 floods in Porto Alegre, Brazil, on official police-recorded child maltreatment crimes.
PARTICIPANTS AND SETTING: All police-recorded child maltreatment cases involving individuals aged 0-17 years in Porto Alegre from January 2022 to December 2025 (7107 records).
METHODS: An ecological interrupted time-series analysis using quasi-Poisson regression was conducted to estimate immediate and gradual changes in reporting after the floods (May 1-June 30, 2024). Outcomes consisted of weekly counts of official police-recorded child maltreatment crimes. Subgroup analyses were performed by sex, age group, race/ethnicity, maltreatment type, and neighborhood flood severity.
RESULTS: Police-recorded child maltreatment showed a significant upward secular trend over the study period (IRR per year = 1.0109; p < 0.001). At flood onset, weekly records dropped by 62.9% relative to the counterfactual expectation (IRR = 0.371; p < 0.001), followed by a significant recovery during the flood period (slope IRR = 1.180; p < 0.001). After floodwaters receded, no significant trend change was observed (p = 0.649). The immediate decline was larger among males, younger children, and physical abuse records. By neighborhood flood impact, severely affected areas showed a 39.6% reduction during the flood (RR = 0.604), moderately affected areas a 32.6% reduction (RR = 0.674), and less affected areas a non-significant 18.2% decline (RR = 0.817); all strata returned to near-baseline levels post-flood.
CONCLUSIONS: The 2024 floods caused substantial, heterogeneous interruptions in police-recorded child maltreatment in Porto Alegre, with abrupt declines at onset, partial recovery during the flood, and post-flood stabilization. Strengthening administrative monitoring and protection structures is essential to maintaining child safety during climate-related emergencies. These findings reflect changes in formal police reporting rather than the true incidence of child maltreatment.
OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the impact of the historic 2024 floods in Porto Alegre, Brazil, on official police-recorded child maltreatment crimes.
PARTICIPANTS AND SETTING: All police-recorded child maltreatment cases involving individuals aged 0-17 years in Porto Alegre from January 2022 to December 2025 (7107 records).
METHODS: An ecological interrupted time-series analysis using quasi-Poisson regression was conducted to estimate immediate and gradual changes in reporting after the floods (May 1-June 30, 2024). Outcomes consisted of weekly counts of official police-recorded child maltreatment crimes. Subgroup analyses were performed by sex, age group, race/ethnicity, maltreatment type, and neighborhood flood severity.
RESULTS: Police-recorded child maltreatment showed a significant upward secular trend over the study period (IRR per year = 1.0109; p < 0.001). At flood onset, weekly records dropped by 62.9% relative to the counterfactual expectation (IRR = 0.371; p < 0.001), followed by a significant recovery during the flood period (slope IRR = 1.180; p < 0.001). After floodwaters receded, no significant trend change was observed (p = 0.649). The immediate decline was larger among males, younger children, and physical abuse records. By neighborhood flood impact, severely affected areas showed a 39.6% reduction during the flood (RR = 0.604), moderately affected areas a 32.6% reduction (RR = 0.674), and less affected areas a non-significant 18.2% decline (RR = 0.817); all strata returned to near-baseline levels post-flood.
CONCLUSIONS: The 2024 floods caused substantial, heterogeneous interruptions in police-recorded child maltreatment in Porto Alegre, with abrupt declines at onset, partial recovery during the flood, and post-flood stabilization. Strengthening administrative monitoring and protection structures is essential to maintaining child safety during climate-related emergencies. These findings reflect changes in formal police reporting rather than the true incidence of child maltreatment.