[Analysis and prediction study on the burden of malignant neoplasms of bone and articular cartilage in East Asian countries from 1990 to 2023].

Objective

To analyze the disease burden of malignant neoplasms of bone and articular cartilage (MNBAC) in the East Asian (China, Democratic People's Republic of Korea, Japan, Mongolia, and South Korea) from 1990 to 2023, so as to formulate and adjust prevention and treatment strategies for MNBAC.

Methods

The average annual percentage change (AAPC) was used to comprehensively evaluate the changing trend of MNBAC disease burden from 1990 to 2023. Decomposition analysis was conducted on the corresponding burden of MNBAC in Ease Asian countries, along with subgroup analyses by age and gender. Based on the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, the future standardized rates of MNBAC in China were predicted.

Results

In 2023, there were significant differences in the disease burden of MNBAC among East Asia countries, with China, Democratic People's Republic of Korea, and Mongolia bearing the heavier burden. From 1990 to 2023, the standardized prevalence, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) rate, and mortality rate of MNBAC in China and Democratic People's Republic of Korea all showed upward trends (AAPC value of 2.86%, 1.74%, 1.96% for China; and 1.15%, 0.84%, 1.26% for Democratic People's Republic of Korea, respectively), whereas those in Japan and Mongolia showed downward trends (AAPC values of -0.36%, -1.40%, -1.37% for Japan; and -0.58%, -0.77%, -0.82% for Mongolia, respectively). The standardized prevalence, DALYs rate, and mortality rate in South Korea remained relatively stable (AAPC=0.12%). Decomposition analysis indicated that epidemiological changes were the main drivers of the increases in prevalence and DALYs burden in China and Democratic People's Republic of Korea, but were negative contributors to the prevalence, DALYs and mortality burden in Mongolia. Gender subgroup analysis showed that the overall burden of MNBAC in males was significantly higher than that in females in East Asia. Age subgroup analysis indicated that the prevalence and DALYs rate exhibited an M-shaped pattern with increasing age, while the mortality rate increased with age. Additionally, over the next the corresponding burden of MNBAC in China is projected to show a downward trend.

Conclusions

The disease burden of MNBAC varies significantly cross countries, genders, and age groups. It is necessary to further develop more targeted prevention and treatment measures based on the distribution characteristics of the disease burden, so as to effectively reduce the burden of MNBAC.