Spatial, temporal, and spatiotemporal analysis of pertussis in Shapingba District, China, 2014-2024.

BACKGROUND

Pertussis has resurged globally, with a sharp increase in 2024 posing serious risks to children health. This study analyzed the epidemiological and spatiotemporal patterns of pertussis in Shapingba District, China, from January 1, 2014 to December 31, 2024, to identify high-risk groups and areas for targeted prevention.

METHODS

Reported pertussis cases were obtained from China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention. Descriptive statistics, spatial autocorrelation (GeoDa), and spatiotemporal scan analysis (SaTScan) were used. ArcMap was applied for visualization.

RESULTS

A total of 2,899 cases were reported, with an average annual incidence of 18.42 per 100,000, peaking at 157.26 in 2024. An age shift was observed: before 2021, infants under 1 year had the highest incidence; from 2021, cases rose among children aged 6–13 years. Spatial clusters were identified in 2015, 2016, 2022, and 2024, with high-risk areas shifting west and southeast over time. Eleven significant clusters occurred between March and August 2024.

CONCLUSION

Pertussis in Shapingba District showed increasing incidence and shifting age and spatial patterns. Enhanced surveillance, optimized immunization schedules, and targeted interventions are urgently needed.