Probabilistic risk assessment for milk in dark chocolate, cookies and other baked goods with PAL sold in Canada.

The risk of having an allergic reaction in milk-allergic individuals consuming products with precautionary allergen labelling (PAL) for milk has been rarely studied in products such as dark chocolate, cookies, and other baked goods. A probabilistic risk assessment model was developed to estimate potential risks. Milk occurrence and contamination levels were reported in a previous article from our group. Dose-response curves for milk were constructed using values (n = 1078) from published double-blind placebo-controlled food challenges. Canadian consumption data was extracted from a national survey, and a homemade survey involving food-allergic Canadians. Milk eliciting doses (ED) were 0.23 (ED01), 1.34 (ED05), 3.42 (ED10), and 16.3 (ED25) mg of milk protein (Log-Normal distribution). Average exposures, per eating occasion, were 24 mg (dark chocolate), 3.9 mg (baked goods), and 0.20 mg (cookies) of milk proteins. The estimated risk of having a milk-induced allergic reaction by consuming foods with PAL for milk was higher for dark chocolate (16%; 15,881/100,000) than baked goods (3.8%; 3802/100,000) or cookies (0.6%; 646/100,000) in milk-allergic Canadians. Dark chocolate, cookies, and baked goods with PAL for milk, should be avoided by milk-allergic Canadians (consuming or not products with PAL) to prevent allergic reactions.