Global burden of diseases attributable to childhood sexual abuse and bullying: findings from 1990 to 2019 and predictions to 2035.

PURPOSE: Childhood sexual abuse (CSA) and bullying are serious public health concerns that influence child, adolescent, and adult health. This study aims to provide updated estimate of age- and sex- specific deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) associated with CSA and bullying from 1990 to 2019 at the global, regional, and national levels, and to forecast the global burden of disease attributed to it from 2020 to 2035.

METHODS

We used the data for the number of deaths, DALYs, age-standardized rate (per 100,000 population), percentage change, and population attributable fraction (PAF) from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 (GBD 2019) to assess the disease burden attributable to CSA and bullying. We further applied an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model to predict the disease burden for the period 2020 to 2035.

RESULTS

In 2019, CSA and bullying accounted for 0.02% and 0.28% of global all-cause deaths and DALYs, respectively. The highest deaths rates were observed in men aged 45-49, and women aged 50-54. The highest DALYs rates were observed in men aged 20-24 and women aged 15-19. The highest age-standardized deaths and DALYs rates were observed in the Eastern Europe region (1.222 [95% UI 0.161, 3.013]) and in High-Income North America region (176.613 [95% UI 79.02, 312.064]) per 100,000 people respectively. El Salvador (1.523 [95% UI 0.209, 3.589]) and Greenland (298.014 [95% UI 138.745, 518.086]) per 100,000 people had the highest age-standardized- deaths and DALYs rates, respectively. The highest age-standardized rates of CSA and bullying related deaths and DALYs were observed in high-socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. The age-standardized deaths rate attributable to CSA and bullying is projected to decrease in both sexes between 2019 and 2035, whereas the age-standardized DALYs rate is projected to decrease in male and increase in female between 2019 and 2035.

CONCLUSIONS

CSA and bullying contributed to the global disease burden. Action is needed to develop effective policies. Our study provides policymakers with up-to-date and comprehensive information.