Infectious diseases of poverty · 2025
Epidemiological characteristics and transmission dynamics of the early stage Chikungunya fever outbreak in Foshan City, Guangdong Province, China in 2025.
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Zhang Meng, Li Yihong, Huang Xiqing, Liu Man, Jiang Siyang, Zeng Biao, Ouyang Luxiang, Huang Jianhua, Mai Bing, Guan Qihua, Zeng Jiazhi, Fu Muying, Zhuo Bingu, Liu Yawen, Zeng Qin, Zhu Naling, Wang Tao, Huang Xiaojun, Pan Yimin, Cheng Mingji, Jia Penghui, Peng Xiaofang, Duan Jinhua, Li Baisheng, He Jianfeng, Zhang Yanping, Zhou Lei, Kang Min, Xiao Jianpeng, Yang Zefeng, Li Yan
Аннотация
BACKGROUND: As of July 22, 2025, the chikungunya virus transmission has been documented across 119 countries and territories of the world. In 2025, an outbreak of chikungunya fever (CF) occurred in Foshan, Guangdong Province, China. We aimed to analyze the epidemiological characteristics and transmission dynamics during the early stage of this outbreak.
METHODS: We collected the data of CF cases in Foshan from July 8 to July 26, 2025. Case data were extracted from the National Notifiable Infectious Disease Reporting System. Demographics and tempo-spatial distributions of cases, incidence rates and the onset-to-report interval times were analyzed. Global spatial autocorrelation (Moran's I) to assess township-level clustering; Kruskal-Wallis tests with Dunn's post-hoc comparisons (Bonferroni-corrected) to analyze onset-to-report intervals across four epidemic phases. The basic reproduction number (R0) was calculated using a maximum likelihood method, which was also compared with the R0 from the CF outbreak in Dongguan City of Guangdong Province in 2010.
RESULTS: A total of 4,754 local cases were reported during the study period. Persons aged 65 years or above had the highest incidence (116.57 per 100,000 population). Most cases were business/service workers, homemakers, and retirees. The median onset-to-report interval decreased from 4 days to 1 day after outbreak control measures were implemented. The outbreak, initially detected in Shunde District, spread rapidly to other districts of Foshan, forming a significant spatial cluster (Moran's I = 0.152, P = 0.029). The estimated R0 was 16.3 (95% confidence interval: 15.0 to 17.5), substantially higher than the estimated R0 of 5.5 for the Dongguan outbreak in 2010.
CONCLUSIONS: This outbreak was characterized by high transmissibility, with older persons being a primary high-risk group. The rapid reduction in case reporting delay highlights the effectiveness of response interventions. Sustained, integrated and prompt response has been essential to control the outbreak.
METHODS: We collected the data of CF cases in Foshan from July 8 to July 26, 2025. Case data were extracted from the National Notifiable Infectious Disease Reporting System. Demographics and tempo-spatial distributions of cases, incidence rates and the onset-to-report interval times were analyzed. Global spatial autocorrelation (Moran's I) to assess township-level clustering; Kruskal-Wallis tests with Dunn's post-hoc comparisons (Bonferroni-corrected) to analyze onset-to-report intervals across four epidemic phases. The basic reproduction number (R0) was calculated using a maximum likelihood method, which was also compared with the R0 from the CF outbreak in Dongguan City of Guangdong Province in 2010.
RESULTS: A total of 4,754 local cases were reported during the study period. Persons aged 65 years or above had the highest incidence (116.57 per 100,000 population). Most cases were business/service workers, homemakers, and retirees. The median onset-to-report interval decreased from 4 days to 1 day after outbreak control measures were implemented. The outbreak, initially detected in Shunde District, spread rapidly to other districts of Foshan, forming a significant spatial cluster (Moran's I = 0.152, P = 0.029). The estimated R0 was 16.3 (95% confidence interval: 15.0 to 17.5), substantially higher than the estimated R0 of 5.5 for the Dongguan outbreak in 2010.
CONCLUSIONS: This outbreak was characterized by high transmissibility, with older persons being a primary high-risk group. The rapid reduction in case reporting delay highlights the effectiveness of response interventions. Sustained, integrated and prompt response has been essential to control the outbreak.