International journal of surgery (London, England) · 2025
Global, regional, and national burden of transport-related moderate/severe traumatic brain injury, 1992-2021: a cross-sectional time-trend analysis of GBD 2021.
СтатьяНазвание и аннотация: Перевод в очереди
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Zhang Qian, Tang Dong, Chen Tiange, Ai Ying, Chen Ziyang, Liu Ganzhi, Liu Jiacheng, Chen Xin, Liu Jinfang, Xia Yuguo
Аннотация
BACKGROUND: Transport-related moderate/severe traumatic brain injury (m/sTBI) is a major cause of disability and death worldwide, yet its global and country-level trends remain underexplored.
METHODS: We analyzed Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 estimates of incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) for transport-related m/sTBI from 1992 to 2021, stratified by age, sex, and SDI quintile. Age-period-cohort models quantified temporal trends; Bayesian APC forecasting projected burden through 2036. Frontier and inequality analyses assessed performance relative to development and income-related disparities.
RESULTS: In 2021, global age-standardized incidence fell by ~21% versus 1992, despite case counts remaining stable (~3.7 million by 2036). High-SDI regions showed the steepest annual declines (>1%/year), whereas low/low-middle SDI areas saw minimal change. China's ASIR (age-standardized incidence rates) is projected to decline to ~56.5/100 000 by 2036, while India's will rise to ~40.2/100 000. Saudi Arabia sustained the highest ASIR in 2021 (185.7/100 000). Children experienced marked annual decreases, older adults continuous increases. Although absolute inequality (SII) narrowed, relative inequality (CI) worsened, concentrating burden in low-SDI countries.
CONCLUSION: Transport-related m/sTBI remains a persistent global health challenge with widening relative inequities. Successes in China and high-SDI settings demonstrate the impact of robust road-safety policies and trauma systems. Rising trends in India and persistently high rates in Saudi Arabia highlight urgent needs for targeted enforcement, infrastructure improvements, and equitable access to trauma care.
METHODS: We analyzed Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 estimates of incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) for transport-related m/sTBI from 1992 to 2021, stratified by age, sex, and SDI quintile. Age-period-cohort models quantified temporal trends; Bayesian APC forecasting projected burden through 2036. Frontier and inequality analyses assessed performance relative to development and income-related disparities.
RESULTS: In 2021, global age-standardized incidence fell by ~21% versus 1992, despite case counts remaining stable (~3.7 million by 2036). High-SDI regions showed the steepest annual declines (>1%/year), whereas low/low-middle SDI areas saw minimal change. China's ASIR (age-standardized incidence rates) is projected to decline to ~56.5/100 000 by 2036, while India's will rise to ~40.2/100 000. Saudi Arabia sustained the highest ASIR in 2021 (185.7/100 000). Children experienced marked annual decreases, older adults continuous increases. Although absolute inequality (SII) narrowed, relative inequality (CI) worsened, concentrating burden in low-SDI countries.
CONCLUSION: Transport-related m/sTBI remains a persistent global health challenge with widening relative inequities. Successes in China and high-SDI settings demonstrate the impact of robust road-safety policies and trauma systems. Rising trends in India and persistently high rates in Saudi Arabia highlight urgent needs for targeted enforcement, infrastructure improvements, and equitable access to trauma care.