Disclosing the hidden association: Time-adjacent analysis reveals the real impact of pollution on death rates in Kazakhstan.

This paper discusses temporal effects on the initial Pearson correlation analysis of the climate and mortality data for Kazakhstan (2000-2021), revealing deceptively negative associations, such as Ischemic Heart Disease (IHD) with Carbon Dioxide (CO2) (r = -0.876) and Stroke with Particulate Matter (PM2.5) (r = -0.396). However, the transformed findings indicate the true positive associations between some of the contaminants and disease by undertaking partial correlation, accounting for the time variable Year. The positive relationships between ischemic heart disease (IHD) and Nitrous Oxide (N2O) (0.676 to 0.720) and Methane (CH4) (0.622 to 0.840) are increased, which indicates that these pollutants have a significant role to play in cardiovascular mortality. After adjustment for the temporal trend (Year), the association between stroke mortality and PM2.5 changed from a negative Pearson correlation (r=-0.396) to a positive partial correlation (r=+0.270). Similarly, the association between stroke mortality and CO2 shifted from r=-0.731 to r=+0.140, indicating that these pollutants may represent underlying environmental risk factors. Similarly, the association between Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) and Methane (CH4) becomes positive (-0.212 to 0.080). The corrected analysis shows, beyond any reasonable doubt, that the direct, positive effect of environmental degradation, namely Methane (CH4) in ischemic heart disease (IHD) and Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD), and Particulate Matter (PM2.5) and Carbon Dioxide (CO2) in stroke, is exerted on the mortality rate.