Pediatrics international : official journal of the Japan Pediatric Society · 2026
Estimating the Risk of Subacute Sclerosing Panencephalitis After Measles in Okinawa, Japan, 1986-2007.
СтатьяНазвание и аннотация: Перевод в очереди
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Kobayashi Yusuke, Takahashi Takuri, Hirayasu Kyomi, Sunagawa Tomimasa
Аннотация
BACKGROUND: Subacute sclerosing panencephalitis (SSPE) is a rare, fatal, late complication of measles that develops years after infection, particularly following measles in early childhood. In Japan, measles incidence has declined markedly after improved vaccination coverage and verification elimination; however, recent SSPE epidemiology remains poorly characterized.
METHODS: SSPE cases were identified from the Intractable Disease Treatment Research Project, the Research Project on the Treatment of Children with Specified Chronic Diseases, and Okinawa-specific publications. Measles-related outpatient visits (1986-2007) were estimated by public health center jurisdiction using annual pediatric sentinel surveillance reports and outpatient visit volumes from the Static Survey of Medical Institutions. Ratio estimation with finite population correction was applied.
RESULTS: Seventeen SSPE cases were identified, 71% in males. SSPE onset occurred during 1994-2009, at a mean age of 8.1 years. The year of measles infection was known for 14 cases, most frequently 1990. For risk estimation, 16 infections occurring during 1986-2007 were included. SSPE risk was estimated as one per 3944 estimated measles-related outpatient visits (95% CI: 1054-6995). In 1990, SSPE risk was one per 1828 outpatient visits (95% CI: 836-2820). Among infants aged < 1 year, SSPE risk was one per 910 outpatient visits (95% CI: 416-1403).
CONCLUSIONS: Estimating denominators for medically attended measles cases from sentinel surveillance enabled quantification of SSPE risk during historical outbreaks in Okinawa. The higher risk during infancy emphasizes the long-term consequences of measles transmission and the need to maintain high measles vaccination coverage.
METHODS: SSPE cases were identified from the Intractable Disease Treatment Research Project, the Research Project on the Treatment of Children with Specified Chronic Diseases, and Okinawa-specific publications. Measles-related outpatient visits (1986-2007) were estimated by public health center jurisdiction using annual pediatric sentinel surveillance reports and outpatient visit volumes from the Static Survey of Medical Institutions. Ratio estimation with finite population correction was applied.
RESULTS: Seventeen SSPE cases were identified, 71% in males. SSPE onset occurred during 1994-2009, at a mean age of 8.1 years. The year of measles infection was known for 14 cases, most frequently 1990. For risk estimation, 16 infections occurring during 1986-2007 were included. SSPE risk was estimated as one per 3944 estimated measles-related outpatient visits (95% CI: 1054-6995). In 1990, SSPE risk was one per 1828 outpatient visits (95% CI: 836-2820). Among infants aged < 1 year, SSPE risk was one per 910 outpatient visits (95% CI: 416-1403).
CONCLUSIONS: Estimating denominators for medically attended measles cases from sentinel surveillance enabled quantification of SSPE risk during historical outbreaks in Okinawa. The higher risk during infancy emphasizes the long-term consequences of measles transmission and the need to maintain high measles vaccination coverage.