Natural disasters and physical health capital loss among school-age children.

An unexpected catastrophic natural disaster that dramatically changes the living environment disrupts educational opportunities for school-aged children, negatively affecting the cognitive and non-cognitive skills and educational achievement necessary for human capital development. However, little attention has been paid to the impact on children's physical health through reduction in physical activity opportunities. Given the positive correlation between academic and athletic performance, the educational returns from disaster-induced negative health shocks may have been underestimated. This study focuses on the magnitude 9.0 Great East Japan Earthquake that occurred in March 11, 2011, with its epicenter off the Pacific coast of the northern Japan, and estimates the impact of a local catastrophic natural disaster on physical development and athletic performance among school-aged children using individual-level data from government statistics. Using a difference-in-differences approach, the results show that the disaster has little overall effect on children's development but significantly increases their bodyweight by 0.4 percentage points and obesity by 0.7 percentage points in the specific areas where more stricter outdoor activity restrictions were imposed. I also find that significantly negative effects on athletic performance of 1.2 percentage points for elementary school students and 2.3 percentage points for secondary school students. Moreover, the negative effects on physical health capital accumulation are consistent with the literature on early health shocks in the life course. These findings strongly suggest that physical health during school age would be an important confounder in the causal inference models on educational achievement and its return for future socioeconomic outcomes.