Pediatric pulmonology · 2025
Trend of Pertussis Mortality and Hospitalizations in Brazilian Children From 1996 to 2023: An Ecological Study.
СтатьяНазвание и аннотация: Перевод в очереди
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Ianzer Moraes Gustavo, Emmendorfer Leonardo Ramos, da Silva de Oliveira Diego Maradona Marques, Zhang Linje
Аннотация
OBJECTIVES: To analyze trends in pertussis mortality and hospitalizations in the Brazilian pediatric population from 1996 to 2023.
METHODS: This ecological time-trend study used DATASUS data. Trends were analyzed using joinpoint regression to calculate annual percent change (APC).
RESULTS: A total of 714 deaths and 31,307 hospitalizations were recorded. Infants under 1 year were the most affected, representing 97.76% of deaths and 87.78% of hospitalizations. Mortality trends showed a nonsignificant decline from 1996 to 2009 (APC: -2.4%; CI: -7.9% to 3.5%), a peak from 2009 to 2013 (APC: 70.9%; CI: -1.7% to 196.9%), and a significant decline from 2013 to 2022 (APC: -41.2%; CI: -46.8% to -34.9%, p < 0.001). Hospitalization rates followed similar trends: a nonsignificant increase from 1998 to 2010 (APC 0.5%; CI: -3.9% to 5.2%), a peak from 2010 to 2013 (APC 89.8%; CI: -27.2% to 0.17%), and a significant decline from 2013 to 2023 (APC -27.6%; CI: -32.8% to -22.0%).
CONCLUSIONS: A peak in pertussis mortality and hospitalizations occurred from 2009/2010 to 2013, followed by a steady decline from 2013 onward.
METHODS: This ecological time-trend study used DATASUS data. Trends were analyzed using joinpoint regression to calculate annual percent change (APC).
RESULTS: A total of 714 deaths and 31,307 hospitalizations were recorded. Infants under 1 year were the most affected, representing 97.76% of deaths and 87.78% of hospitalizations. Mortality trends showed a nonsignificant decline from 1996 to 2009 (APC: -2.4%; CI: -7.9% to 3.5%), a peak from 2009 to 2013 (APC: 70.9%; CI: -1.7% to 196.9%), and a significant decline from 2013 to 2022 (APC: -41.2%; CI: -46.8% to -34.9%, p < 0.001). Hospitalization rates followed similar trends: a nonsignificant increase from 1998 to 2010 (APC 0.5%; CI: -3.9% to 5.2%), a peak from 2010 to 2013 (APC 89.8%; CI: -27.2% to 0.17%), and a significant decline from 2013 to 2023 (APC -27.6%; CI: -32.8% to -22.0%).
CONCLUSIONS: A peak in pertussis mortality and hospitalizations occurred from 2009/2010 to 2013, followed by a steady decline from 2013 onward.