Operationalizing the Concept of Socio-environmental Tipping Points in River Basin Management.

The concept of socio-environmental tipping points (SETPs) is gaining interest as a means to describe nonlinear transformations in socio-environmental systems that are driven by both biophysical and social dynamics. These SETPs stem from multiple interacting factors that can rarely be traced to a single driver, leading to significant complexity and uncertainty. Structured frameworks can support the rigorous identification and assessment of SETPs, but little research exists that applies them in practice. This research utilizes a previously developed conceptual framework to identify prospective SETPs, using the Kiiminkijoki River Basin in northern Finland as a case study location. Land use in rural, forested basins such as the Kiiminkijoki will play a crucial role in meeting Finland's goals for climate change mitigation, water quality improvement, and biodiversity protection. However, they are facing many pressures, including legacy effects of peatland drainage, rapid climatic changes, and economic and demographic transitions. The conceptual framework was used to structure a 1-day workshop that brought together a transdisciplinary group of researchers and practitioners. Workshop participants used the framework to inventory the different social and environmental elements, processes, and linkages in the basin, and this inventory was then reviewed to identify prospective tipping points. The process resulted in five prospective SETPs where interactions between social and environmental processes create the potential for feedback loops and cascading changes. Our analysis forms a practical basis for improving the status of the Kiiminkijoki River, as well as a stepping stone towards applying the SETP framework to water management more broadly.