Synergies and Trade-Offs Between Energy, Climate, and Biodiversity from Global Fuelwood Consumption.

Fuelwood remains a major traditional energy source for more than 264 million households worldwide. However, its global impacts on sustainability are poorly quantified. Here, we develop an integrated framework combining energetic, economic, and environmental perspectives to evaluate the livelihood, economic, carbon emission, and biodiversity impacts of global fuelwood consumption from 2000 to 2021 and to project outcomes under alternative energy and management scenarios for 2030 and 2050. We find that global fuelwood consumption reached 1.9 billion m3 in 2021 (2.5% of primary energy use). The economic value was $190 billion, accounting for 0.2% of global GDP but up to 6.7% in low-income countries. Fuelwood use by all income levels together generated 1.1-1.7 Gt CO2 emissions and significantly undermined global biodiversity integrity. Counterfactual simulations show that substituting 90% of unsustainably harvested fuelwood with renewable energy could reduce global primary energy emissions by 3.2-4.4% and increase biodiversity integrity by 0.3%. By 2050, policy interventions would markedly improve carbon and biodiversity outcomes. Forest certification reduces emissions by up to 99.7, 98.4, and 74.0% in high-, upper-middle-, and lower-middle-income countries, respectively. In low-income countries, clean energy substitution reduces emissions by 61.3%, while LPG and clean energy scenarios increase biodiversity integrity by up to 65.6% and further improve outcomes in higher-income groups. These findings underscore the importance of systemic approaches that explicitly account for trade-offs and synergies among energy access, livelihoods, carbon mitigation, and biodiversity conservation in fuelwood management.