Association between socioeconomic and health variables and community-acquired pneumonia mortality rates in Chile from 1990 to 2021.

OBJECTIVES

To describe long-term trends in mortality attributed to community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) in Chile from 1990 to 2021, stratified by age group, and to evaluate associations with selected socioeconomic and demographic indicators.

STUDY

DESIGN

Ecological, observational, longitudinal study using national secondary data.

METHODS

CAP mortality rates were analyzed for the total population and by age group. Associations with the Human Development Index (HDI), poverty rate, aging index, and life expectancy at birth were examined using a hierarchical analytical approach. This included Spearman's rank correlation for initial exploration, multivariable linear regression to assess adjusted associations, and Prais-Winsten generalized least squares regression to account for first-order autocorrelation and shared temporal trends. Stationarity was evaluated using augmented Dickey-Fuller tests, with supplementary analyses using first-differenced variables. Missing data were imputed using time-based regression or interpolation, with sensitivity analyses performed.

RESULTS

CAP mortality declined substantially across all age groups over the study period. Strong bivariate correlations were observed between mortality and all socioeconomic indicators; however, these associations were attenuated after adjustment for confounding and temporal autocorrelation. In multivariable and time-series models, HDI and the aging index remained significantly associated with CAP mortality in children (0-9 years) and older adults (≥65 years), whereas associations in intermediate age groups were not robust after accounting for shared secular trends. Poverty and life expectancy did not demonstrate independent associations in adjusted models.

CONCLUSIONS

CAP mortality in Chile has decreased markedly over the past three decades. Associations with socioeconomic indicators are strongest at the extremes of age and persist after accounting for temporal structure, although the ecological design precludes causal inference. These findings highlight the importance of considering demographic and socioeconomic context in population-level analyses of infectious disease outcomes.