A predictive study of congenital heart disease and need for care.

For long-term planning in the delivery of health care, prevalence data are essential for budget estimates in terms both of distribution and training of manpower and fiscal responsibility. From incidence figures, from the knowledge of the natural history of congenital heart disease and from predicted population estimates it is possible to construct a model that reflects the prevalence of congenital heart disease. This has been done for the state of California; the methods used and the data gathered should prove useful nationally. It is estimated that there were in 1975 in California 17,531 children under 21 years of age with congenital heart disease; 24 percent of these had ventricular septal defects and 23 percent had pulmonary stenosis, 11 percent had atrial septal defects and 9 percent had aortic stenosis; the other forms of congenital heart disease constituted the remaining 33 percent. Based on these estimates it is then possible to plan the medical resources necessary for optimal care.