Do Sanctions Affect Undetected Sexual Offending?

Undetected sexual offending creates challenges for risk assessment since estimated sexual recidivism rates are based on documented charges or convictions. Courts and other stakeholders may be primarily interested in the true risk for sexual reoffense and not simply risk for detected sexual offenses. Attempts to study and quantify the rate of undetected sexual offending have resulted in a wide variety of estimates. In this study, we explore whether sanctions imposed for detected sexual offenses increase the detection rate of subsequent offenses, and thereby suppress undetected sexual offending in an exceptionally high-risk sample who were ultimately committed as Sexually Violent Persons. Results indicate the detection rate of sexual offenses increased following an initial sanction, subsequently decreasing the proportion of undetected to detected offending. This effect only occurred after the first sanction. Overall, the sample had a high detection rate and spent little time in the community before subsequent arrests. These results differ from other reports that high rates of sexual offenses go undetected.