Nature communications · 2025
Early favorable prostate-specific antigen response prediction in metastatic hormone sensitive prostate cancer.
СтатьяРандомизированное исследованиеНазвание и аннотация: Перевод в очереди
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Roy Soumyajit, Sun Yilun, Hussain Maha, Chi Kim N, Fizazi Karim, Davis Ian D, Halabi Susan, Agarwal Neeraj, Chowdhury Simon, Tombal Bertrand, Morgan Scott C, Malone Shawn, Barata Pedro C, Ong Michael, Wallis Christopher J D, Berlin Alejandro, Swami Umang, Kishan Amar U, Jia Angela Y, Zaorsky Nicholas G, Garcia Jorge A, Mendiratta Prateek, Brown Jason R, Subhash Vinod V, Stockler Martin R, Thomas Hayley, McKay Rana R, Small Eric J, Shore Neal D, Saad Fred, Sweeney Christopher J, Spratt Daniel E
Аннотация
There is an unmet need for a tool that could predict early favorable prostate-specific antigen (PSA) response in metastatic hormone sensitive prostate cancer (mHSPC) patients receiving androgen receptor pathway inhibitor (ARPI). Here, we train and validate a multivariable logistic regression model to predict early favorable PSA response (≤0.2 ng/mL by 6 months) in these patients. Patients randomly allocated to the ARPI arms of the LATITUDE (abiraterone), TITAN (apalutamide), and ARASENS (darolutamide) trials, are split 60:40 into training (n = 1030) and internal validation (n = 688) cohorts. The locked model is validated in an independent external validation cohort - the enzalutamide arm of the ENZAMET trial (n = 540). The area under curve and Brier score for the locked model in the external validation cohort are 0.82 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.78-0.85) and 0.16, respectively. Stratification by predicted probability tertiles show PSA response rates of 92% (95% CI = 88-96), 74% (95% CI = 68-81), and 39% (95% CI = 32-47), respectively. Pending prospective validation, our model predicts early favorable PSA response supporting its potential role in guiding treatment decisions.