World journal of pediatrics : WJP · 2022
Clinical characteristics and mortality risk prediction model in children with acute myocarditis.
СтатьяНазвание и аннотация: Перевод в очереди
Обработка статьи · этапы, ошибки и управление
Загрузка состояния…
Ошибки и ограничения
История · было → стало
Состояние обновляется каждые 5 секунд, пока блок открыт. Процент показывается только там, где известен объём работы. Пауза останавливает продолжение этапа; текущий запрос к источнику может завершиться.
Zhuang Shi-Xin, Shi Peng, Gao Han, Zhuang Quan-Nan, Huang Guo-Ying
Аннотация
BACKGROUND: Acute myocarditis (AMC) can cause poor outcomes or even death in children. We aimed to identify AMC risk factors and create a mortality prediction model for AMC in children at hospital admission.
METHODS: This was a single-center retrospective cohort study of AMC children hospitalized between January 2016 and January 2020. The demographics, clinical examinations, types of AMC, and laboratory results were collected at hospital admission. In-hospital survival or death was documented. Clinical characteristics associated with death were evaluated.
RESULTS: Among 67 children, 51 survived, and 16 died. The most common symptom was digestive disorder (67.2%). Based on the Bayesian model averaging and Hosmer-Lemeshow test, we created a final best mortality prediction model (acute myocarditis death risk score, AMCDRS) that included ten variables (male sex, fever, congestive heart failure, left-ventricular ejection fraction < 50%, pulmonary edema, ventricular tachycardia, lactic acid value > 4, fulminant myocarditis, abnormal creatine kinase-MB, and hypotension). Despite differences in the characteristics of the validation cohort, the model discrimination was only marginally lower, with an AUC of 0.781 (95% confidence interval = 0.675-0.852) compared with the derivation cohort. Model calibration likewise indicated acceptable fit (Hosmer‒Lemeshow goodness-of-fit, P¼ = 0.10).
CONCLUSIONS: Multiple factors were associated with increased mortality in children with AMC. The prediction model AMCDRS might be used at hospital admission to accurately identify AMC in children who are at an increased risk of death.
METHODS: This was a single-center retrospective cohort study of AMC children hospitalized between January 2016 and January 2020. The demographics, clinical examinations, types of AMC, and laboratory results were collected at hospital admission. In-hospital survival or death was documented. Clinical characteristics associated with death were evaluated.
RESULTS: Among 67 children, 51 survived, and 16 died. The most common symptom was digestive disorder (67.2%). Based on the Bayesian model averaging and Hosmer-Lemeshow test, we created a final best mortality prediction model (acute myocarditis death risk score, AMCDRS) that included ten variables (male sex, fever, congestive heart failure, left-ventricular ejection fraction < 50%, pulmonary edema, ventricular tachycardia, lactic acid value > 4, fulminant myocarditis, abnormal creatine kinase-MB, and hypotension). Despite differences in the characteristics of the validation cohort, the model discrimination was only marginally lower, with an AUC of 0.781 (95% confidence interval = 0.675-0.852) compared with the derivation cohort. Model calibration likewise indicated acceptable fit (Hosmer‒Lemeshow goodness-of-fit, P¼ = 0.10).
CONCLUSIONS: Multiple factors were associated with increased mortality in children with AMC. The prediction model AMCDRS might be used at hospital admission to accurately identify AMC in children who are at an increased risk of death.