Journal of endocrinological investigation · 2025
Extending curve matching with flexible hyperparameter selection to predict response to long-acting PEGylated growth hormone treatment in growth hormone deficiency children: method development and validation.
СтатьяВалидационное исследованиеНазвание и аннотация: Перевод в очереди
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Hou Ling, Fu Junfen, Wei Haiyan, Liang Liyang, Du Hongwei, Zhang Jianping, Zhong Yan, Chen Ruimin, Cheng Xinran, Pan Jiayan, Shan Xiaoou, Zeng Ting, Gong Chunxiu, Liao Wei, Liu Deyun, Zhu Shunye, Lan Dan, Dong Zhiya, Ma Huamei, Yang Yu, Zhu Min, Sun Wen, Luo Xiaoping
Аннотация
PURPOSE: Curve matching can predict the height trajectories of children by analyzing longitudinal growth data. We extended the method to improve the prediction of response to long-acting growth hormone treatment in children with growth hormone deficiency (GHD).
METHODS: We analyzed data from a previous real-world study with a 36-month treatment of PEGylated recombinant human growth hormone (PEG-rhGH). The matching database comprises height measures imputed using the broken stick method. For curve matching, we proposed a flexible hyperparameter selection approach to determining the number of similar patients.
RESULTS: The matching database included 681 patients, with an average of 12.20 ± 2.09 height measurements per patient. Our approach demonstrated significantly improved prediction accuracy compared with the previous approach using a fixed number of similar patients (mean squared errors of 0.0412 ± 0.1156 vs. 0.564 ± 0.1639, 0.851 ± 0.2627, and 0.1077 ± 0.2960 for 5, 10, and 15 similar patients, respectively, all P < 0.05). The optimal prediction scenario was having four height measurements within the first six months and predicting height trajectories from there on.
CONCLUSION: By extending curve matching with flexible hyperparameter selection, we accurately predicted the response to long-acting PEG-rhGH in the GHD children included in this study.
METHODS: We analyzed data from a previous real-world study with a 36-month treatment of PEGylated recombinant human growth hormone (PEG-rhGH). The matching database comprises height measures imputed using the broken stick method. For curve matching, we proposed a flexible hyperparameter selection approach to determining the number of similar patients.
RESULTS: The matching database included 681 patients, with an average of 12.20 ± 2.09 height measurements per patient. Our approach demonstrated significantly improved prediction accuracy compared with the previous approach using a fixed number of similar patients (mean squared errors of 0.0412 ± 0.1156 vs. 0.564 ± 0.1639, 0.851 ± 0.2627, and 0.1077 ± 0.2960 for 5, 10, and 15 similar patients, respectively, all P < 0.05). The optimal prediction scenario was having four height measurements within the first six months and predicting height trajectories from there on.
CONCLUSION: By extending curve matching with flexible hyperparameter selection, we accurately predicted the response to long-acting PEG-rhGH in the GHD children included in this study.