Population-based prediction of trauma volumes at a Level 1 trauma centre.

OBJECTIVE

With an ageing US population, the demographics of traumatic injuries are being significantly altered. Census projections predict that the number of Americans over age 65 will double in the next 20 years. We used stochastic methods to forecast trauma admissions in order to predict the effects of such demographic changes at our trauma centre.

METHODS

Age- and sex-related rates of traumatic admission were determined using population statistics and trauma registry data from 1994 to 1999. These rates were then projected from 2000 to 2025 based on both the Lee-Carter and random walk with drift methods. Stochastic population projections were made and paired with the projected trauma rates, allowing estimation of total trauma volume.

RESULTS

Trauma rates were predicted to increase for most age groups. Trauma admissions are predicted to increase 57% by 2024. By 2019, 50% of trauma admissions will be 60 or older.

CONCLUSIONS

Our trauma volume is expected to increase 57% by 2024, an increase of 2% per year. More of this volume will consist of elderly patients, potentially requiring increased health-care resources.