Calibration and validation of the pediatric resuscitation and trauma outcome model among injured children in Rwanda.

BACKGROUND

Trauma is a leading cause of mortality in low- and middle-income countries. The Pediatric Resuscitation and Trauma Outcomes (PRESTO) model uses six low-tech variables available at point of care in resource-limited environments to predict in-hospital mortality of injured children. This model was never calibrated and validated in a low-income country. We aimed to calibrate the model's coefficients and compare its performance against the Revised Trauma Score (RTS) and Kampala Trauma Score (KTS) using data from a low-income country.

STUDY

DESIGN

Data from 2011 to 2015 in the prospectively-maintained Rwanda Injury Registry were reviewed after ethical approval was obtained. Patients were included for analysis if they were referred or admitted for traumatic injury, were younger than 15 years and if hospital outcomes were recorded. The variables in the PRESTO model include age, hypotension, heart rate, neurological status, oxygen saturation and airway intervention. The outcome of interest was in-hospital death. After calibration, Receiver-Operating-Characteristic curves were constructed to compare the area-under-curve (AUC) of PRESTO, RTS, and KTS with imputation of missing data. Comparisons of the relative AUC's were performed using Delong's test after bootstrapping in the full cohort and in a subset of patients <5 years-old.

RESULTS

There were 113 in-hospital deaths out of 1695 included patients (6.7%). The AUC for the PRESTO model was 0.90 (95% CI [0.82-0.91]), higher than for RTS (0.77, 95% CI [0.80-0.97], p < 0.01) but not statistically different from KTS (0.89, 95% CI [0.72-0.82], p = 0.856). In the under-five cohort, the PRESTO model AUC was 0.84 (95% CI [0.75-0.92]), significantly higher than RTS (0.73 95% CI [0.64-0.81], p < 0.01) and KTS (0.58, 95% CI [0.50-0.66], p < 0.01).

CONCLUSION

PRESTO appears to be the superior benchmarking tool for pediatric patients in a low- and middle-income country context. The PRESTO score outperforms the KTS in children <5 years of age. Further validation of the PRESTO model is needed from other low- and middle-income settings.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: Level III: case-control (prognostic) study.