Variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease and the potential for its accidental transmission following surgery with contaminated instruments: the risk of transmission in Australia.

We present a simple model for the quantitative risk assessment of vCJD transmission following surgery. Factors that affect the transmission of the disease are prevalence of the disease, concentration of prions in tissues, genetic susceptibility, the number and type of surgical procedures and the effectiveness of decontamination procedures. The main sources of uncertainty are the number of people currently incubating vCJD in Australia and the effectiveness of the decontamination processes for surgical instrumentation. The model serves as a guide for predicting the number of possible vCJD transmissions following individual surgical procedures. It is the uncertainty of the epidemic that poses a challenge to the public health scientist. Greater certainty of the pathogenesis and progression of the disease will only come with increased years of surveillance.