Distribution of Desmodus rotundus and Its Implications for Rabies in Mexico.

Rabies is one of the zoonoses with the most significant impact on domestic herbivores, representing a mortality of 100,000 individuals and an economic loss of US$97 million per year in Latin America. The common vampire bat (Desmodus rotundus) is the primary reservoir for livestock rabies and is naturally distributed in Latin America. The concern arises from the possibility that climate change could facilitate the species' arrival to the southern USA. In this study, we used ecological niche modeling to estimate the distribution of D. rotundus in the present time and under future climate change scenarios. We analyzed whether rabies cases in Mexico were related to D. rotundus climatic suitability, and other factors such as livestock density and an ecological impact index. Our results suggest that climate change could facilitate the colonization of new sites in northern Mexico and the southern USA, which could threaten animal and human health. Further, we found that rabies cases are explained mainly by the reservoir suitability. However, national- and state-level policies may also play a key role in explaining the rabies cases in Mexico. There is a possibility that D. rotundus may expand its range to northern and northeastern Mexico, implying a high risk for the presence of rabies virus-free areas in the southern USA.