Climate and environmental effects of electric vehicles versus compressed natural gas vehicles in China: a life-cycle analysis at provincial level.

Electric vehicles (EVs) and compressed natural gas vehicles (CNGVs), which are mainly coal-based and natural gas-based, are the two most widely proposed replacements of gasoline internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs) in P.R. China. We examine fuel-cycle emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs), PM(2.5), PM(10), NO(x), and SO(2) of CNGVs and EVs relative to gasoline ICEVs and hybrids, by Chinese province. CNGVs can currently reduce emissions of GHGs, PM(10), PM(2,5), NO(x), and SO(2) by approximately 6%, 7%, 20%, 18% and 22%, respectively. EVs can reduce GHG emissions by 20%, but increase PM(10), PM(2.5), NO(x), and SO(2) emissions by approximately 360%, 250%, 120%, and 370%, respectively. Nevertheless, results vary significantly by province. Regarding their contribution to national emissions, PM increases from EVs are unimportant, because light-duty passenger vehicles contribute very little to overall PM emissions nationwide (≤0.05%); however, their NO(x) and SO(2) increases are important. Since China is striving to reduce power plant emissions, EVs are expected to have equivalent or even lower SO(2) and NO(x) emissions relative to ICEVs in the future (2030). Before then, however, EVs should be developed according to the cleanness of regional power mixes. This would lower their SO(2) and NO(x) emissions and earn more GHG reduction credits.