Predicting the distribution of Ixodes ricinus in Europe: integrating microclimatic factors into ecological niche models.

Ixodes ricinus, commonly known as the castor bean tick and sheep tick, is a significant vector of various diseases, such as tick-borne encephalitis and Lyme borreliosis. Owing to climate change, the distribution and activity of I. ricinus are expected to increase, leading to an increase in the number of diseases transmitted by this species. Most distribution models and ecological niche models utilize macroclimate datasets such as WorldClim or CHELSA to map the distribution of disease-transmitting ticks. However, microclimatic factors are crucial for the activity and survival of small arthropods. In this study, an ecological niche modelling approach was used to assess the climatic suitability of I. ricinus using both microclimatic and macroclimatic parameters. A Mixed model was built by combining parameters from the Soiltemp (microclimate) and Wordclim (macroclimate) databases, whereas a Macroclimate model was built with the CHELSA dataset. Additionally, future suitabilities were projected via the macroclimate model under the SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. Macroclimate and Mixed models showed similar distributions, confirming the current distribution of I. ricinus. The most important climatic factors were seasonality, annual temperature range, humidity and precipitation. Future projections suggest significant expansion in northern and eastern Europe, with notable declines in southern Europe.