[Long-term prognosis of the status of tick-borne encephalitis foci and morbidity].

On the basis of literary data and results of the author's investigations in the Krasnoyarsk Territory a method of three-stage long-term prognosis of the state of foci and sick rate with tick-borne encephalitis was suggested. The first stage, territorial extrapolatory prognosis, is carried out in cases when long-term prognosis for unknown in epizootic and epidemiological respect territories is required. A map of epizootiological and epidemiological zonation serves as a formal materialization of territorial extrapolatory prognosis. The second stage, long-term expert extrapolatory prognosis of tendencies in natural development of foci or sick rate, is based on the retrospective evaluation of the development of foci or sick rate in the past and extrapolation of revealed regularities for the future. The third stage, expert prognosis of anthropogenic effect on the state of foci and sick rate, is carried out in the case of the forthcoming transformation of landscapes under the effect of anthropogenic factors.