Acta psychiatrica Scandinavica · 2008
Evaluation of clinical prognostic models for suicide attempts after a major depressive episode.
Оценочное исследованиеСтатьяПоддержка NIH: внешняя программаПоддержка исследования: вне правительства СШАНазвание и аннотация: Перевод в очереди
Обработка статьи · этапы, ошибки и управление
Загрузка состояния…
Ошибки и ограничения
История · было → стало
Состояние обновляется каждые 5 секунд, пока блок открыт. Процент показывается только там, где известен объём работы. Пауза останавливает продолжение этапа; текущий запрос к источнику может завершиться.
Galfalvy H C, Oquendo M A, Mann J J
Аннотация
OBJECTIVE: In this study, we compare the performance of prognostic models of increasing complexity for prediction of future suicide attempt.
METHOD: Using data from a 2-year prospective study of 304 depressed subjects, a series of Cox proportional hazard regression models were developed to predict future suicide attempt. The models were evaluated in terms of discrimination (the ability to rank subjects in order of risk), calibration (accuracy of predicted probabilities of attempt), and sensitivity and specificity of risk group stratification based on cross-validated predicted probabilities.
RESULTS: Although an additive model with past attempt, smoking status, and suicidal ideation achieved 75% (cross-validated) sensitivity and specificity, models that performed best in terms of discrimination included interactions between predictor variables.
CONCLUSION: As several models had similar predictive power, clinical considerations and ease of interpretation may have a significant role in the final stage of model selection for assessing future suicide attempt risk.
METHOD: Using data from a 2-year prospective study of 304 depressed subjects, a series of Cox proportional hazard regression models were developed to predict future suicide attempt. The models were evaluated in terms of discrimination (the ability to rank subjects in order of risk), calibration (accuracy of predicted probabilities of attempt), and sensitivity and specificity of risk group stratification based on cross-validated predicted probabilities.
RESULTS: Although an additive model with past attempt, smoking status, and suicidal ideation achieved 75% (cross-validated) sensitivity and specificity, models that performed best in terms of discrimination included interactions between predictor variables.
CONCLUSION: As several models had similar predictive power, clinical considerations and ease of interpretation may have a significant role in the final stage of model selection for assessing future suicide attempt risk.
Предметные рубрики MeSH
AdultAggressionBipolar DisorderBorderline Personality DisorderMajor Depressive DisorderDisruptive, Impulse Control, and Conduct DisordersFemaleHostilityHumansLife Change EventsMaleProportional Hazards ModelsProspective StudiesRisk AssessmentSeverity of Illness IndexSuicide, AttemptedSurveys and Questionnaires