BMJ (Clinical research ed.) · 2024
Delirium and incident dementia in hospital patients in New South Wales, Australia: retrospective cohort study.
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Gordon Emily H, Ward David D, Xiong Hao, Berkovsky Shlomo, Hubbard Ruth E
Аннотация
OBJECTIVES: To determine the strength and nature of the association between delirium and incident dementia in a population of older adult patients without dementia at baseline.
DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study using large scale hospital administrative data.
SETTING: Public and private hospitals in New South Wales, Australia between July 2001 and March 2020.
PARTICIPANTS: Data were extracted for 650 590 hospital patients aged ≥65 years. Diagnoses of dementia and delirium were identified from ICD-10 (international classification of diseases, 10th revision) codes. Patients with dementia at baseline were excluded. Delirium-no delirium pairs were identified by matching personal and clinical characteristics, and were followed for more than five years.
MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Cox proportional hazards models and Fine-Gray hazard models were used to estimate the associations of delirium with death and incident dementia, respectively. Delirium-outcome dose-response associations were quantified, all analyses were performed in men and women separately, and sensitivity analyses were conducted.
RESULTS: The study included 55 211 matched pairs (48% men, mean age 83.4 years, standard deviation 6.5 years). Collectively, 58% (n=63 929) of patients died and 17% (n=19 117) had a newly reported dementia diagnosis during 5.25 years of follow-up. Patients with delirium had 39% higher risk of death (hazard ratio 1.39, 95% confidence interval 1.37 to 1.41) and three times higher risk of incident dementia (subdistribution hazard ratio 3.00, 95% confidence interval 2.91 to 3.10) than patients without delirium. The association with dementia was stronger in men (P=0.004). Each additional episode of delirium was associated with a 20% increased risk of dementia (subdistribution hazard ratio 1.20, 95% confidence interval 1.18 to 1.23).
CONCLUSIONS: The study findings suggest delirium was a strong risk factor for death and incident dementia among older adult patients. The data support a causal interpretation of the association between delirium and dementia. The clinical implications of delirium as a potentially modifiable risk factor for dementia are substantial.
DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study using large scale hospital administrative data.
SETTING: Public and private hospitals in New South Wales, Australia between July 2001 and March 2020.
PARTICIPANTS: Data were extracted for 650 590 hospital patients aged ≥65 years. Diagnoses of dementia and delirium were identified from ICD-10 (international classification of diseases, 10th revision) codes. Patients with dementia at baseline were excluded. Delirium-no delirium pairs were identified by matching personal and clinical characteristics, and were followed for more than five years.
MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Cox proportional hazards models and Fine-Gray hazard models were used to estimate the associations of delirium with death and incident dementia, respectively. Delirium-outcome dose-response associations were quantified, all analyses were performed in men and women separately, and sensitivity analyses were conducted.
RESULTS: The study included 55 211 matched pairs (48% men, mean age 83.4 years, standard deviation 6.5 years). Collectively, 58% (n=63 929) of patients died and 17% (n=19 117) had a newly reported dementia diagnosis during 5.25 years of follow-up. Patients with delirium had 39% higher risk of death (hazard ratio 1.39, 95% confidence interval 1.37 to 1.41) and three times higher risk of incident dementia (subdistribution hazard ratio 3.00, 95% confidence interval 2.91 to 3.10) than patients without delirium. The association with dementia was stronger in men (P=0.004). Each additional episode of delirium was associated with a 20% increased risk of dementia (subdistribution hazard ratio 1.20, 95% confidence interval 1.18 to 1.23).
CONCLUSIONS: The study findings suggest delirium was a strong risk factor for death and incident dementia among older adult patients. The data support a causal interpretation of the association between delirium and dementia. The clinical implications of delirium as a potentially modifiable risk factor for dementia are substantial.