Trends in Radiation Therapy among Cancer Survivors in the United States, 2000-2030.

Background

Although the number of cancer survivors has increased substantially over the past several decades, the composition of survivors treated with radiotherapy is not well defined. Radiotherapy carries unique long-term toxicity risks for cancer survivors. This study describes the current estimates and future projections of the epidemiology of 5-year cancer survivors who receive radiation therapy.

Methods

We used cancer incidence and survival data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End-Results (SEER) database linked to U.S. Census data to estimate the number of 5-year cancer survivors treated with radiation between 2000 and 2030. Future projections assumed continuing incidence and survival trends based on historical rates.

Results

In 2016, there were an estimated 3.05 million cancer survivors treated with radiation, accounting for 29% of all cancer survivors. The number of radiation-treated cancer survivors is projected to reach 3.38 million by 2020 and 4.17 million by 2030. In 2016, breast (40%) and prostate cancer (23%) composed the majority of radiation-treated survivors, followed by head and neck cancer (5.8%), lymphoma (5.6%), uterine (3.9%), and rectal cancer (3.8%). The percentage of 70 years or older radiation-treated survivors steadily increased between 2000 and 2030.

Conclusions

The next several years are projected to see a large increase in the number of cancer survivors treated with radiation.Impact: This group of cancer survivors has unique needs given the long-term risks of radiation, and increased research and awareness are required to optimize health of this growing population. Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev; 26(6); 963-70. ©2017 AACR.