Optimal reproductive-skew models fail to predict aggression in wasps.

Optimal-skew models (OSMs) predict that cooperative breeding occurs as a result of dominants conceding reproductive benefits to subordinates, and that division of reproduction within groups reflects each cooperator's willingness and ability to contest aggressively for dominance. Polistine paper wasps are a leading model system for testing OSMs, and data on reproduction and aggression appear to support OSMs. These studies, however, measure aggression as a single rate rather than by the activity patterns of individuals. This leads to a potential error: if individuals are more likely to receive aggression when active than when inactive, differences in aggression across samples can reflect changes in activity rather than hostility. This study replicates a field manipulation cited as strongly supporting OSMs. We show that fundamentally different conclusions arise when controlling for individual activity states. Our analyses strongly suggest that behaviours classified as 'aggression' in paper wasps are unlikely to function in establishing, maintaining or responding to changes in reproductive skew. This illustrates that OSM tests using aggression or other non-reproductive behaviour as a metric for reproductive partitioning must demonstrate those links rather than assume them.