The predictability of relapses in schizophrenic patients.

The objective of this study was to identify clinically relevant predictors of short-term (2 years) outcome in schizophrenic patients and to gather these predictors into one simple prognosis model for the course of the disease. Ninety-nine schizophrenic outpatients classified according to DSM-III criteria were observed for 3 years with regard to their relapse (rehospitalization) frequency. Predictors of both a high and a low relapse risk permitting a prognostic assessment of the individual case were based on various sources: case history data, especially those relating to the previous course of the disease: social and therapeutic situation; psychopathological findings; emotional family atmosphere; and prognosis scales.