Risk assessment instruments for predicting the risk of sexual recidivism: A meta-analytic comparison of 10 instruments.

Risk assessment instruments are commonly used to predict the probability of recidivism among individuals with criminal histories. This meta-analysis synthesizes evidence on the predictive validity of ten instruments for assessing sexual recidivism risk: MnSOST-R, RM2000/S, RRASOR, SORAG, Static-2002, Static-2002 R, Static-99, Static-99 R, SVR-20, and VRS-SO. It includes 162 studies involving 155,442 individuals, published from 1997 to 2024. Results suggested moderate to high predictive validity for most instruments in predicting sexual recidivism and other outcomes, such as violent, sexual-violent, general, and any recidivism. The VRS-SO showed the highest predictive value for sexual recidivism but did not differ from other tools significantly. The SORAG had the highest predictive value for sexual-violent, general, and any recidivism, significantly outperforming the Static-99. The RRASOR had a moderate predictive value for sexual recidivism, but the lowest effect size for all other outcomes. A moderator analysis revealed that mean interrater reliability and mean offender age significantly affected the instruments' predictive validity. This work represents the largest synthesis of risk assessment instruments for sexual recidivism risk to date. The findings support the viability of all instruments examined in forensic practice. Their predictive validity did, however, overlap considerably, except for the more substantial effects of the VRS-SO and the SORAG, and the weaker effect of the RRASOR. Given the overall moderate predictive validity, the instruments should be used in conjunction with other information to guide decision making within the criminal justice system. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2026 APA, all rights reserved).