[Identification of Pollution Sources and Health Risk Assessment of Shallow Groundwater in the North Anhui Plain Based on the PMF Model and Monte Carlo Simulation].

Taking the shallow groundwater in the North Anhui Plain as the research object, 40 groundwater samples were collected. A comprehensive study was conducted using hydrogeochemical methods, positive matrix factorization （PMF）, and Monte Carlo simulation to systematically explore the characteristics, sources, and potential risks to human health of pollutants in the groundwater. The results indicated that the groundwater in the study area was overall weakly alkaline, with the main hydrochemical types being HCO3-Na·Mg and HCO3-Ca·Mg. The hydrochemical characteristics were influenced by the synergy of silicate weathering, carbonate dissolution, and cation exchange. Through the PMF model analysis, three major controlling factors affecting groundwater quality and their contribution rates were identified as geological processes （48.4%）, hydrogeochemical evolution （28.1%）, and agricultural production activities （23.5%）. Health risk assessment based on Monte Carlo simulation showed that 65.69% of children in the study area were exposed to unacceptable non-carcinogenic risks, with the risk level being 5.13 times higher than that of adults. F- was identified as the main health risk factor, primarily attributed to geological processes. The research results, combined with source analysis and health risk assessment methods, provide important scientific guidance and basis for water resource management and pollution prevention and control strategies in the study area.