Identifying main drivers and testing control strategies for CCHFV spread.

Crimean Congo Haemorrhagic Fever (CCHF) is an emerging zoonotic disease. The causative agent is a virus (CCHFV), mainly transmitted by ticks of the species Hyalomma marginatum in Eastern Europe and Turkey. In order to test potential scenarios for the control of pathogen spread, the basic reproduction number (R0) for CCHF was calculated. This calculation was based on a population dynamics model and parameter values from the literature for pathogen transmission. The tick population dynamics model takes into account the major processes involved and gives estimates for tick survival from one stage to the other and number of feeding ticks. It also considers the influence of abiotic (meteorological variables) and biotic factors (host densities) on model outputs, which were compared with data collected in Central Anatolia (Turkey). R0 computation was thereafter used to test control strategies and especially the effect of acaricide treatment. Simulation results indicate that such treatments could have valuable effects provided that the acaricide is applied regularly throughout the spring and summer, and over several years. Furthermore, a sensitivity analysis to abiotic and biotic factors showed that, even though temperature has a strong impact on model outputs, host (mainly hare) densities also play a role. The kind of model we have developed provides insight into the ability of different strategies to prevent and control disease spread and has proved its relevance when associated with field trials.