Unraveling the Unexpected: How Pilots Can Successfully Manage Unexpected Events.

ObjectiveWe sought to identify types of events pilots find most unexpected, strategies they employ to manage them, and recommendations for improving training. In doing so, we aimed to inform the development of more effective training programs, enhance pilot preparedness for unexpected events, and improve aviation safety.BackgroundThe increasing complexity of contemporary flight creates more opportunities for unexpected events. This poses a threat to aviation safety, as these events can cause cognitive overload, stress, and diminished performance. While current training focuses on known anomalies, pilots must also be prepared to respond flexibly to unfamiliar scenarios using a core set of technical and cognitive skills.MethodWe conducted 50 knowledge elicitation interviews with pilots. Interviewers ascertained the types of events pilots reported as unexpected, the strategies they used to manage them, and the perceived gaps in current training.ResultsAircraft systems malfunctions, environmental uncertainties, and human-related incidents were the most frequently reported. Pilots relied on procedures and checklists, basic flight skills, and Crew Resource Management principles to manage these events. Cognitive strategies, such as sustained situational awareness, were also identified as essential. Pilots emphasized the need for additional simulator-based training and training on judgment expertise concepts.ConclusionFindings indicate that successful management of unexpected events requires both technical proficiency and judgment expertise.ApplicationWe propose a taxonomy to organizing prevention and mitigation strategies by event phase (prior, during, and following) and by system level (human, machine, environment). This framework can be used to help identify gaps in current practices, guide training, and structure safety interventions.