Seasonal variation of mortality from external causes in Hungary between 1995 and 2014.

OBJECTIVE

To analyze trends in external mortality in Hungary between 1995 and 2014 by sex.

METHODS

Data on the numbers of deaths due to external causes were obtained from the published nationwide population register. Negative binomial regression was applied to investigate the yearly trends in external-cause mortality rates. Cyclic trends were investigated using the Walter-Elwood method.

RESULTS

Suicide and accidents accounted for approximately 84% of the all-external-cause of deaths in Hungary. Annual suicide, unintentional falls and traffic accidents mortality declined significantly (p-value for annual trend: p < 0.001) from 30.5 (95% CI: 29.5-31.5) to 15.8 (15.1-16.5), from 31.2 (30.2-32.2) to 12.2 (11.7-12.8) and from 17.2 (16.4-18) to 5.4 (5-5.8) per 100 000 persons per year, respectively, during the study period. A significant declining trend in annual mortality was also found for assault, cold/heating-related accidents and accidents caused by electric current. However, the declining trend for drowning-related accidents was significant only for males. Significant winter-peak seasonality was found in the mortality rates from accidental falls, cold/heat-related accidents, other accidents caused by submersion/obstruction and other causes. Seasonal trends with a peak from June to July were observed in death rates from suicide/self-harm, accidental drowning/submersion and accidents caused by electric current. A significant seasonal variation with a peak in September was revealed in the mortality due to traffic accidents.

CONCLUSIONS

This Hungarian study suggests that there was a significant seasonal effect on almost all kinds of deaths from external causes between 1995 and 2014. Environmental effects are involved in the aetiology of suicide and accidents.