The Journal of adolescent health : official publication of the Society for Adolescent Medicine · 2025
Time-Specific Predictors of E-Cigarette and Cigarette Use Trajectory Classes From Preadolescence to Late Adolescence (2013-2020) of the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health (PATH) Study.
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Stanton Cassandra A, Tang Zhiqun, Sharma Eva, Salim Anikah H, Creamer MeLisa R, Ruybal Andrea L, Marshall Daniela, Zaganjor Ibrahim, Silveira Marushka L, Rivers Derick L, Das Babita, Carr Charles Deljohn, Delahanty Janine C, Wang Jia, Kimmel Heather L, Compton Wilson M, Hyland Andrew J, Pearson Jennifer L
Аннотация
PURPOSE: In the US, youth e-cigarette use is more prevalent than cigarette use. Among younger adolescents in US middle schools, use of any nicotine/tobacco product is on the rise. Different factors may drive transitions from susceptibility to initiation, and less is known about early adolescent transitions.
METHODS: Data were drawn from US early adolescents (aged 12-13 years) at Wave (W) 1 of the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health (PATH) Study across 7 waves (2013-2020) into older adolescents (aged 18-19 years). Unweighted longitudinal latent class analyses identified trajectory classes of e-cigarette and cigarette susceptibility and use in separate models. Weighted multinomial logistic regression analyses examined time-specific predictors of divergent trajectories.
RESULTS: Five e-cigarette classes (weighted 45.1% Never Use, 15.4% Susceptible, 6.9% Initiated only, 19.9% W5 Progressed/discontinued, and 12.7% Progressed/persisted) and 4 cigarette classes (weighted 61.2% Never Use, 21.3% Susceptible, 10.6% W4.5 Progressed/discontinued, and 6.9% Former Use) were identified. In 2020 (the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic), discontinued use of both products was observed. Only the e-cigarette model identified a class with persistent use through 2020. Daily social media use and advertising exposure were specifically important to susceptibility and initiation of e-cigarettes among younger adolescents. Best friend use, low perceptions of product harm, and substance use problems showed strong associations with trajectories of e-cigarettes and cigarettes.
DISCUSSION: Trajectories for both products revealed a period of susceptibility before use that may be particularly amenable to early intervention. It is important to monitor daily social media use and advertising exposure to prevent e-cigarette susceptibility and initiation.
METHODS: Data were drawn from US early adolescents (aged 12-13 years) at Wave (W) 1 of the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health (PATH) Study across 7 waves (2013-2020) into older adolescents (aged 18-19 years). Unweighted longitudinal latent class analyses identified trajectory classes of e-cigarette and cigarette susceptibility and use in separate models. Weighted multinomial logistic regression analyses examined time-specific predictors of divergent trajectories.
RESULTS: Five e-cigarette classes (weighted 45.1% Never Use, 15.4% Susceptible, 6.9% Initiated only, 19.9% W5 Progressed/discontinued, and 12.7% Progressed/persisted) and 4 cigarette classes (weighted 61.2% Never Use, 21.3% Susceptible, 10.6% W4.5 Progressed/discontinued, and 6.9% Former Use) were identified. In 2020 (the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic), discontinued use of both products was observed. Only the e-cigarette model identified a class with persistent use through 2020. Daily social media use and advertising exposure were specifically important to susceptibility and initiation of e-cigarettes among younger adolescents. Best friend use, low perceptions of product harm, and substance use problems showed strong associations with trajectories of e-cigarettes and cigarettes.
DISCUSSION: Trajectories for both products revealed a period of susceptibility before use that may be particularly amenable to early intervention. It is important to monitor daily social media use and advertising exposure to prevent e-cigarette susceptibility and initiation.