The risks of transfusion-transmitted infection: direct estimation and mathematical modelling.

Direct measurement of the risk of transfusion-transmitted infection (TTI) is practical and accurate only if the level of risk is high. Historically, studies that established frozen repositories of transfusion recipient and/or blood donor samples were important in establishing the risk of many TTI agents, including the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), hepatitis B virus (HBV) and hepatitis C virus (HCV). However, given the current very low risk of TTI, mathematical modelling is necessary to estimate the magnitude of such a risk. For agents for which routine blood donor screening is performed, most of this risk comes from transfusion of units collected in the window period between donor infection and a positive blood screening assay. The incidence/window period model has been used to estimate the magnitude of such risks (of the order of 1:100 000 to 1:1 000 000) and for predicting the extent of risk reduction that can be expected with implementation of new tests. Direct estimation and mathematical modelling approaches are both important tools for future assessment of potential, new or emerging TTI agents.