Public Perception of Recidivism Risk among Released Correctional Inmates in Japan.

This study examines the disparity between public perception and official statistics on recidivism rates in Japan and investigates the impacts of gender and age on these estimates. A web-based survey with 381 participants was conducted. Participants estimated five-year reimprisonment rates for seven offense categories and the overall average. Results showed that participants overestimated recidivism rates for all offenses, with significant overestimation for sex offenses, robbery, and drug offenses by 27.35, 23.11, and 18.54 percentage points, respectively. A two-factor analysis of variance revealed no significant gender effect on estimated rates. Age had a significant effect on drug offenses (F [4,371] = 3.13, p = .015, η2 = .033), with the 40s age group estimating higher rates than the 20s group. Findings underscore the discrepancies between public perception and actual recidivism, highlighting the need to understand these perceptions for effective policy and risk communication in the criminal justice system.