Journal of public health policy · 2024
High transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in Amazonia, Brazil: an epidemiological strategy to contain severe cases of COVID-19.
СтатьяНазвание и аннотация: Перевод в очереди
Обработка статьи · этапы, ошибки и управление
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Ferrante Lucas, Capanema Eduardo, Steinmetz Wilhelm Alexander Cardoso, Nelson Bruce Walker, Almeida Alexandre Celestino Leite, Leão Jeremias, Pereira Letícia Sarturi, Vassão Ruth Camargo, Fearnside Philip Martin, Tupinambás Unaí
Аннотация
We followed the COVID-19 pandemic in Manaus, one of the epicenters of COVID-19 in Brazil, using an epidemiological mathematical model and made five main conclusions. First, in early 2022, the actual cases exceed officially reported data by up to 8 times. Second, despite vaccination campaigns, the collective immunity threshold necessary was insufficient to contain severe cases of COVID-19. Next, the low observed mortality demonstrated the effectiveness of vaccination. Next, the drop in the vaccination rate combined with immune escape by the Omicron sub-variants (BA.2.12.1, BA.4, and BA.5) resulted in new wave after November 2022. Finally, to minimize severe cases of COVID-19, we need to raise vaccination thresholds above 90-95% of the entire population including children aged 6 months and older and require booster doses at least in four-month intervals. This approach would help to prevent severe cases of COVID-19 that cause hospitalizations and deaths.