Childhood Demographics and Socioeconomic Conditions Predict Reproduction 15 Years Later.

Psychosocial acceleration theory (PAT) posits that experiencing harsh and unpredictable environments during childhood cues the development of earlier and more frequent reproductive events. However, this developmental association has not been tested in large human populations. Visible minorities and Indigenous people are also subjected to harsher and more unpredictable circumstances than the general population. These circumstances might not be detected in common measures used in PAT literature. In four studies, we tested whether an exploratory analytical approach using measures of harshness and unpredictability from census data of a high-income country (Canada) would be relevant predictors of measures of reproduction 15 years later, whether the proportion of Indigenous people and of visible minorities are relevant predictors, and tested methodological and statistical assumptions and limitations of this approach. Following PAT assumptions, we hypothesize that higher rates of harshness and unpredictability will be associated with higher rates of reproduction. Results were mixed in offering support or working against PAT claims. A higher percentage of children in low-income households was predictive of a higher percentage of single-parent households in Canadian census divisions. However, measures indicative of lower access to resources and unpredictable parental availability were negatively predictive of reproduction outcomes. A higher percentage of Indigenous people was also predictive of a larger family size of single parents. Findings can help inform public policies around early pregnancy and family planning.