Analyzing pedestrian fatalities in the United States: A comparative study of pedestrian and census tract level factors across pre-, during, and late-pandemic periods.

INTRODUCTION

The increasing number of pedestrian fatalities has emerged as a significant public health concern, a situation that has been exacerbated by the disruptions resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic. While existing literature provides insights into general trends and factors affecting pedestrian safety, a gap remains in understanding how these dynamics shifted during the pandemic and late-pandemic periods. This study aims to conduct a comprehensive assessment of the factors that have differential impacts on pedestrian fatalities across three periods: pre-pandemic (2018-2019), pandemic (2020-2021), and late-pandemic (2022) in comparison to the baseline period (2016-2017).

METHOD: The data were obtained from various sources, including the Fatality Analysis and Reporting System, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Smart Location Database, and Disadvantaged Community Database. This study utilized a twofold approach: first, analyses were conducted at the pedestrian fatality level using a mixed effects multinomial logit model that compared the likelihood of a pedestrian fatality occurring in each study period; second, analyses were conducted at the census tract level using mixed effects negative binomial models that compared the frequency of pedestrian fatality across the study period.

RESULTS

The results showed pedestrian and driver age, impairment, jaywalking, weekend evenings/nights, and population density exhibited a temporal shift across the study periods and were associated with a higher likelihood of pedestrian fatalities. Furthermore, urban areas, lower-income neighborhoods, transit stop density, auto-oriented road network density, and percent population with poor mental health, were associated with an incremental increase in pedestrian fatalities across the study periods.

CONCLUSIONS

This study highlights significant shifts in factors affecting pedestrian fatalities during and in the late-pandemic periods, underscoring the need for targeted safety interventions and infrastructure improvements.

PRACTICAL APPLICATIONS: The findings suggest targeted pedestrian safety campaigns, improved traffic control, promoting safe behaviors, and infrastructure enhancements in low-income areas could mitigate pedestrian fatalities.