IMMUNOLOGICAL CRITERIA FOR PREDICTING SEVERE AND COMPLICATED FORMS OF VARICELLA ZOSTER IN CHILDREN.

AIM OF THE STUDY: To evaluate immunological markers associated with the risk of severe and complicated forms of varicella zoster virus (VZ) in children in order to determine prognostic criteria for disease severity.

MATERIALS AND

METHODS

The study included 120 children with VZ, divided into groups with complicated (n=63) and uncomplicated (n=57) disease. All patients underwent assessment of interferon alpha markers, complement components (C3, C4), antibodies to MAG, TGF, as well as analysis of complete blood count and C-reactive protein (CRP). Statistical analysis included binary logistic regression and 5-fold cross-validation.

SELECTION CRITERIA: Children aged 0 to 18 years inclusive with a verified diagnosis of varicella

Results

The most significant predictors of complicated disease were elevated levels of CRP (OR=10.05; p<0.001), platelets (OR=9.69; p=0.04), and C3 component (OR=2.77; p=0.006), as well as reduced levels of C4 component (OR=0.036; p=0.005). The logistic regression model showed high discriminatory ability (AUC=0.7857).

CONCLUSION

Immunological parameters such as CRP, C3, C4 and platelets can be used as prognostic markers of complicated varicella in children. Early assessment of immune status contributes to the timely identification of patients at risk and optimization of treatment tactics.