U.S. marital disruptions and their economic and social correlates, 1860-1948.

A new estimate of U.S. marital disruptions shows an increase in desertions relative to divorces after 1900. Desertions were the more volatile component of marital disruptions because of their greater responsiveness to general economic conditions. Large marriage cohorts, formed in the years of economic expansion, disrupted in greater numbers: an increase in the marriage rate by 10 per 1,000 unmarried women raised the proportion of disrupted marriage by 7.3 percentage points. Conversely, during years of recession, many poorer couples were discouraged from marriage; smaller marriage cohorts with more resilient marriages were formed and their lifetime marriage disruption rate was lower.