Changes in Community-level Pedestrian Stops Following Overdose Prevention Center Implementation in New York City: An Augmented Synthetic Control Approach.

BACKGROUND

Overdose prevention centers (OPCs) may reduce public drug use and, with it, policing of people who use drugs in the communities surrounding these sites. We applied an augmented synthetic control method to assess changes in pedestrian stops before and after the November 2021 opening of two OPCs (Washington Heights and East Harlem) in New York City.

METHODS

We retrieved pedestrian stop information from the New York Police Department's Stop, Question, and Frisk program from January 2017 to December 2024, and created bimonthly averages using 5- and 10-minute walking buffers surrounding the OPCs and 57 donor sites (syringe service and opioid treatment programs) as outcomes. Covariates were derived from the American Community Survey, New York Police Department Calls for Services, and SafeGraph pedestrian mobility estimates.

RESULTS

The opening of the Washington Heights OPC was associated with a reduction of 2.8 bimonthly average pedestrian stops in the post-intervention period when using 5-minute walking buffers, although results were compatible with increases and reductions (95% confidence interval [CI] = -9.4, 4.0). For 10-minute walking buffers, results were compatible with a wide range of reductions (average treatment effect on the treated [ATT] = -9.2 [95% CI = -18.3, -1.3]). East Harlem OPC showed larger point estimates when examining both distances (ATT = -8.4 [95% CI = -12.2, -4.5] and ATT = -13.7 [95% CI = -22.1, -4.2] with 5- and 10-minute walking buffers, respectively). For both sites, permutation tests suggested that these reductions fell within the range of possible donor-unit placebo effects.

CONCLUSION

Our study shows limited evidence of an effect of New York City's first two OPCs on pedestrian stops in their immediate vicinity, with a potential decrease concentrated in the first 2 years at the East Harlem location.