Population attributable risk for pancreatic cancer in Northern Italy.

OBJECTIVE

To provide data on the impact of known risk factors on pancreatic cancer burden, we estimated the population attributable risks (PARs) in the Italian population.

METHODS

Data were derived from a case-control study conducted in Northern Italy between 1991 and 2008, including 326 case patients with incident pancreatic cancer and 652 hospital control subjects.

RESULTS

We found that 13.6% (95% confidence interval [CI], 6.3-20.8) of pancreatic cancers were attributable to tobacco smoking, 13.0% (95% CI, 2.7-23.2) were attributable to heavy alcohol drinking, 9.7% (95% CI, 5.3-14.1) were attributable to diabetes, 11.9% (95% CI, -8.0 to 31.8) were attributable to a low adherence to Mediterranean diet, and 0.6% (95% CI, -1.8 to 2.9) were attributable to a family history of pancreatic cancer. The PARs for tobacco smoking increased up to 25.7% when we considered it jointly with alcohol, up to 21.7% with diabetes, and up to 24.8% with low Mediterranean diet adherence. For all the risk factors considered, the PARs were higher in men than in women, the differences being particularly evident for heavy alcohol consumption and for a low Mediterranean diet adherence.

CONCLUSIONS

These results suggest that an appreciable proportion of pancreatic cancers could be avoided in this Italian population by intervention on a few selected modifiable lifestyle factors.